8 points.
According to the most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, that’s all that separates independent presidential candidate Noa Kalakaua from his opponents, major party nominees John McCain and Barack Obama, who are currently deadlocked at 31%. Kalakaua polled at 23%. 15% of the country remains undecided.
Kalakaua’s campaign, which had long been dismissed as an ultimately insignificant political curiosity, has experienced a dramatic transformation over the last two weeks.
The Kalakaua campaign, even though it has less than $1.5 million in the bank and doesn’t employ a single adviser with presidential campaign experience, has become a political force that will almost certainly play a major role in deciding the upcoming general election.
Kalakaua’s surge started two weeks ago when Hillary Clinton invited him to join her ticket two days before the Democratic National Convention. Kalakaua’s decision to decline made headlines around the world.
Two days later the Los Angeles Times reported that both McCain and Obama had also approached Kalakaua about joining their tickets.
The Times’ source was Jason Decker, a UCLA senior who joined the Kalakaua campaign in March and worked there until August 25. In an interview with the Post, Decker explained that he’d left the campaign because Kalakaua wouldn’t allow anyone on the staff to speak to the media about McCain and Obama’s interest in him as a running mate
Decker says Kalakaua didn’t think it was relevant and worried that his independent supporters might view him even considering joining one of the major parties as a betrayal. “Noa thought it would be a distraction,” Decker says. “He told us, ‘we’ve got to beat them with our ideas. We’ve got to convince people that ours in the best plan for change’.”
Decker and two of the other interns working on Kalakaua’s campaign argued vehemently that McCain and Obama’s interest in Kalakaua validated his ideas, especially at a time when he was struggling to get voters to take him seriously. McCain first approached Kalakaua in May and Obama did so in early August.
Kalakaua told his aides he’d seriously consider joining either ticket if he felt the potential running mate would aggressively pursue his plans for reform and would allow him to remain an independent.
Kalakaua, according to Decker, came closest to joining the McCain campaign. McCain first approached Kalakaua in May. “McCain took him seriously. He’s independent and reform minded. Everything Noa is pushing for resonates with him.” Eventually, though, McCain’s advisors concluded that choosing Kalakaua could hurt McCain’s chances of securing the country’s conservative base.
Obama called in August, but, Decker says, “the talks were never terribly serious.”
Despite that, Decker and two of his colleagues within the campaign wanted to leak the conversations to the media. Kalakaua, though, refused. “It was the only time Noa ever said, ‘look, guys, it’s my way or the highway,’” Decker says. “He was adamant that no one tell the media.”
Decker, firm in his belief that Kalakaua was missing an opportunity that could catapult him into contention, ultimately decided to “take the highway.” He left the campaign a day after Kalakaua passed on the opportunity to become Hillary Clinton’s running mate and sought out a Los Angeles Times reporter.
Decker is clear about his reasons. “Of the people running, I think Noa will be the best president and I’ve always felt that sharing this news would dramatically help his chances of winning.”
“The American people have had a hard time taking Noa seriously. Can you blame them? The guy has no political experience and was on American Idol,” Decker said. “But he makes sense. His ideas makes sense. He’s capable of leading and thinking strategically about policy. That’s why the three major presidential candidates courted him.”
So far Decker’s story has checked out. The McCain campaign admitted it had been in talks with Kalakaua. The Obama campaign has refused comment, but has not denied accounts of their interest in Kalakaua. Clinton, of course, announced her interest in Kalakaua publicly.
Since Decker took his story to the media, public opinion of Kalakaua has skyrocketed. Over the past two weeks, he has picked up 8% in the Washington Post-ABC News poll. During that time the number of undecided voters has also increased by 2%. That means that Obama and McCain have together given up 10 points. They are currently deadlocked at 31%.
In the past two weeks, Kalakaua has also refined his message. He’s continued to refuse to articulate a position on hot button issues like abortion, gun control, or engagement with Iran and has focused instead on calls for a line item veto, term limits for all members of Congress, and fiscal restraint.
“The biggest problem we face today, the one that we most need to change, is that the people we’ve elected to run our government don’t want to deal with the most pressing issues facing the country.”
Kalakaua has been spending a lot of time trying to convince voters that his issues are, indeed, the most pressing issues. “People have asked me what’s at stake,” Kalakaua said to a group of supporters at the University of Pennsylvania. “I tell them our way of life and our standard of living are at stake. Unless we begin to change, we’re going to pay a big price. If we don’t take steps to ensure our economic strength, to shore up Social Security, and Medicare, we could be looking at hardship the likes of which haven’t been seen since the Great Depression.”
“Here’s the thing. The changes will be hard. You can’t just blame high oil prices. You can’t blame the war in Iraq. Our government and our consumers spend too much and save too little and it’s going to catch up with us. We need to change this. The solutions are hard. That’s why other politicians aren’t talking about them. But you need to be thinking about them, both for our country and for yourselves as private individuals.”
Kalakaua’s calls for change are winning over supporters who are tired of corruption, waste, overspending, and “Do Nothing Congresses.” Many of these new supporters appear to be coming from the Republican and Democratic parties. Seth Meehan, a political science professor from Georgetown University, cautions against drawing that conclusion. “Here’s what we know,” Meehan said. “In the last poll, 13% of the country was undecided. Today it’s 15%. More people are undecided. Kalakaua has undoubtedly caused Republicans and Democrats to rethink their allegiances. People aren’t necessarily leaving the major parties and becoming his supporters. It could be that he’s winning over undecided voters and somehow challenging many of those who had decided to reconsider.”
While the polls can’t say exactly which scenario is happening, one thing, Meehan says, is clear. “Kalakaua has momentum right now. People are taking him seriously and a lot of people think he makes sense.”
Kalakaua also rehired Decker, who was one of his top volunteers, earlier this week. “I’m grateful for the risk Jason took on my behalf,” Kalakaua said. “I don’t appreciate that he did it against my wishes. I’ve told him that. He apologized. In the end, he was right.”
